Model estimate · expected goals 2.26 – 0.86
Correct Score — Even the most likely score (2-0) is only 11% likely.
Auxerre to win — Model gives it only 12%.
Market-based estimate: built from current bookmaker odds (margin removed), adjusted for injuries and head-to-head where available. Outcome probabilities are Rennes 68%, draw 20%, Auxerre 12%, making "Rennes (DNB)" the strongest result-based option. Model probability 85%; confidence 75/100 after adjusting for data completeness (60%). Not available: League scoring averages (model prior used), Season home/away goal records, Recent form (last 5)….
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