Model estimate · expected goals 1.94 – 0.81
Market-based estimate: built from current bookmaker odds (margin removed), adjusted for injuries and head-to-head where available. Outcome probabilities are Jagiellonia 63%, draw 23%, Ararat-Armenia 14%, making "Jagiellonia (DNB)" the strongest result-based option. Model probability 82%; confidence 70/100 after adjusting for data completeness (50%). Not available: League scoring averages (model prior used), Season home/away goal records, Recent form (last 5)….
Predictions are statistical estimates, not guarantees. Bet responsibly.
Correct Score — Even the most likely score (2-0) is only 12% likely.
Ararat-Armenia to win — Model gives it only 14%.
Odds may have changed. Verify current odds with your bookmaker before placing a bet.