Model estimate · expected goals 1.79 – 0.95
Market-based estimate: built from current bookmaker odds (margin removed), adjusted for injuries and head-to-head where available. Outcome probabilities are Aston Villa 56%, draw 25%, Fenerbahçe 19%, making "Aston Villa or Draw" the strongest result-based option. Model probability 81%; confidence 70/100 after adjusting for data completeness (50%). Not available: League scoring averages (model prior used), Season home/away goal records, Recent form (last 5)….
Predictions are statistical estimates, not guarantees. Bet responsibly.
Correct Score — Even the most likely score (1-1) is only 12% likely.
Fenerbahçe to win — Model gives it only 19%.
Odds may have changed. Verify current odds with your bookmaker before placing a bet.