Model estimate · expected goals 1.4 – 1.25
Correct Score — Even the most likely score (1-1) is only 13% likely.
Draw — Model gives it only 28%.
Market-based estimate: built from current bookmaker odds (margin removed), adjusted for injuries and head-to-head where available. Both sides' scoring records point to a tight game of roughly 2.7 expected goals, supporting under 3.5 goals. Model probability 72%; confidence 63/100 after adjusting for data completeness (60%). Not available: League scoring averages (model prior used), Season home/away goal records, Recent form (last 5)….
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