Model estimate · expected goals 1.26 – 1.52
Market-based estimate: built from current bookmaker odds (margin removed), adjusted for injuries and head-to-head where available. Outcome probabilities are Everton 30%, draw 27%, Chelsea 42%, making "Chelsea +1" the strongest result-based option. Model probability 84%; confidence 74/100 after adjusting for data completeness (60%). Not available: League scoring averages (model prior used), Season home/away goal records, Recent form (last 5)….
Predictions are statistical estimates, not guarantees. Bet responsibly.
Correct Score — Even the most likely score (1-1) is only 13% likely.
Draw — Model gives it only 27%.
Odds may have changed. Verify current odds with your bookmaker before placing a bet.