Model estimate · expected goals 1.59 – 0.79
Correct Score — Even the most likely score (1-0) is only 14% likely.
Charlton to win — Model gives it only 18%.
Market-based estimate: built from current bookmaker odds (margin removed), adjusted for injuries and head-to-head where available. Outcome probabilities are Burnley 56%, draw 27%, Charlton 18%, making "Burnley or Draw" the strongest result-based option. Model probability 83%; confidence 73/100 after adjusting for data completeness (60%). Not available: League scoring averages (model prior used), Season home/away goal records, Recent form (last 5)….
Predictions are statistical estimates, not guarantees. Bet responsibly.
Odds may have changed. Verify current odds with your bookmaker before placing a bet.