Model estimate · expected goals 0.91 – 1.66
Market-based estimate: built from current bookmaker odds (margin removed), adjusted for injuries and head-to-head where available. Outcome probabilities are Espanyol 20%, draw 26%, Atletico Madrid 54%, making "Atletico Madrid or Draw" the strongest result-based option. Model probability 80%; confidence 71/100 after adjusting for data completeness (60%). Not available: League scoring averages (model prior used), Season home/away goal records, Recent form (last 5)….
Predictions are statistical estimates, not guarantees. Bet responsibly.
Correct Score — Even the most likely score (1-1) is only 12% likely.
Espanyol to win — Model gives it only 20%.
Odds may have changed. Verify current odds with your bookmaker before placing a bet.