Model estimate · expected goals 1.63 – 0.84
Market-based estimate: built from current bookmaker odds (margin removed), adjusted for injuries and head-to-head where available. Outcome probabilities are QPR 55%, draw 26%, Derby 18%, making "QPR or Draw" the strongest result-based option. Model probability 82%; confidence 72/100 after adjusting for data completeness (60%). Not available: League scoring averages (model prior used), Season home/away goal records, Recent form (last 5)….
Predictions are statistical estimates, not guarantees. Bet responsibly.
Correct Score — Even the most likely score (1-0) is only 13% likely.
Derby to win — Model gives it only 18%.
Odds may have changed. Verify current odds with your bookmaker before placing a bet.