Model estimate · expected goals 2.53 – 0.66
Market-based estimate: built from current bookmaker odds (margin removed), adjusted for injuries and head-to-head where available. Outcome probabilities are Bournemouth 77%, draw 16%, Sturm Graz 7%, making "Bournemouth or Sturm Graz" the strongest result-based option. Model probability 84%; confidence 72/100 after adjusting for data completeness (50%). Not available: League scoring averages (model prior used), Season home/away goal records, Recent form (last 5)….
Predictions are statistical estimates, not guarantees. Bet responsibly.
Correct Score — Even the most likely score (2-0) is only 13% likely.
Sturm Graz to win — Model gives it only 7%.
Odds may have changed. Verify current odds with your bookmaker before placing a bet.