Model estimate · expected goals 1.99 – 1.12
Market-based estimate: built from current bookmaker odds (margin removed), adjusted for injuries and head-to-head where available. Both sides' scoring records point to a tight game of roughly 3.1 expected goals, supporting under 4.5 goals. Model probability 80%; confidence 67/100 after adjusting for data completeness (60%). Not available: League scoring averages (model prior used), Season home/away goal records, Recent form (last 5)….
Predictions are statistical estimates, not guarantees. Bet responsibly.
Correct Score — Even the most likely score (1-1) is only 11% likely.
Excelsior to win — Model gives it only 20%.
Odds may have changed. Verify current odds with your bookmaker before placing a bet.