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Netherlands · EredivisieRegular Season - 8Fri 09 Oct, 19:00Philips Stadion
PE
PSV Eindhoven
Home
VS
Kick-off 09/10/2026, 19:00
H
Heerenveen
Away

Outcome probabilities

Model estimate · expected goals 2.85 – 1.1

73%
Home win
PSV Eindhoven
16%
Draw
Draw
11%
Away win
Heerenveen
Over 1.5 goals91%
Over 2.5 goals75%
Over 3.5 goals56%
Both teams to score63%

Recommended markets

Data completeness 60%
74%
Best selection · Double Chance
PSV Eindhoven or Heerenveen
Low–Medium riskOdds 1.11
  • 1
    PSV Eindhoven or Heerenveen
    Double Chance · P 84% · fair 1.19 · edge -6%
    74%1.11
  • 2
    1st Half Over 0.5 Goals
    1st Half Goals O/U 0.5 · P 82% · fair 1.21
    73%—
  • 3
    Under 4.5 Goals
    Over/Under 4.5 Goals · P 64% · fair 1.56 · edge +17%
    56%1.83
  • 4
    Over 2.5 Goals
    Over/Under 2.5 Goals · P 75% · fair 1.33 · edge -14%
    66%1.14
  • 5
    PSV Eindhoven to win
    Match Winner · P 73% · fair 1.37 · edge -9%
    64%1.25
  • 6
    PSV Eindhoven Over 1.5 Goals
    Home Team Goals O/U 1.5 · P 78% · fair 1.29
    68%—
Avoid

Correct Score — Even the most likely score (2-1) is only 9% likely.

Heerenveen to win — Model gives it only 11%.

Why this prediction

Market-based estimate: built from current bookmaker odds (margin removed), adjusted for injuries and head-to-head where available. Outcome probabilities are PSV Eindhoven 73%, draw 16%, Heerenveen 11%, making "PSV Eindhoven or Heerenveen" the strongest result-based option. Model probability 84%; confidence 74/100 after adjusting for data completeness (60%). Not available: League scoring averages (model prior used), Season home/away goal records, Recent form (last 5)….

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Predictions are statistical estimates, not guarantees. Bet responsibly.

Market odds

Odds via Bet365 · 11 h ago
Double Chance
Heerenveen or Draw3.75
Match Winner
PSV Eindhoven to win1.25
Match Winner
Draw6.50
Match Winner
Heerenveen to win9.50
Draw No Bet
PSV Eindhoven (DNB)1.07
Draw No Bet
Heerenveen (DNB)9.00
Over/Under 1.5 Goals
Over 1.5 Goals1.03
Over/Under 1.5 Goals
Under 1.5 Goals15.00
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Over 2.5 Goals1.14
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Under 2.5 Goals5.50
Over/Under 3.5 Goals
Over 3.5 Goals1.36
Over/Under 3.5 Goals
Under 3.5 Goals3.00
Over/Under 0.5 Goals
Over 0.5 Goals1.00
Over/Under 0.5 Goals
Under 0.5 Goals51.00
OU_8_5
Over 8.5 Goals15.00
OU_8_5
Under 8.5 Goals1.03
OU_9_5
Over 9.5 Goals26.00
OU_9_5
Under 9.5 Goals1.01
Over/Under 4.5 Goals
Over 4.5 Goals1.83
Over/Under 4.5 Goals
Under 4.5 Goals1.83
OU_7_5
Over 7.5 Goals8.00
OU_7_5
Under 7.5 Goals1.08
OU_5_5
Over 5.5 Goals2.75
OU_5_5
Under 5.5 Goals1.40
OU_6_5
Over 6.5 Goals4.50
OU_6_5
Under 6.5 Goals1.18
Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score: Yes1.36
Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score: No3.00
Double Chance
PSV Eindhoven or Draw1.07
Double Chance
PSV Eindhoven or Heerenveen1.11

Odds may have changed. Verify current odds with your bookmaker before placing a bet.