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Belgium · Jupiler Pro LeagueRegular Season - 8Fri 09 Oct, 19:45Freethiel Stadion
SB
SK Beveren
Home
VS
Kick-off 09/10/2026, 19:45
LU
Lommel United
Away

Outcome probabilities

Model estimate · expected goals 1.8 – 1.17

51%
Home win
SK Beveren
25%
Draw
Draw
24%
Away win
Lommel United
Over 1.5 goals81%
Over 2.5 goals57%
Over 3.5 goals35%
Both teams to score58%

Recommended markets

Data completeness 60%
72%
Best selection · Over/Under 4.5 Goals
Under 4.5 Goals
Low–Medium riskOdds 1.17
  • 1
    Under 4.5 Goals
    Over/Under 4.5 Goals · P 82% · fair 1.22 · edge -4%
    72%1.17
  • 2
    Over 1.5 Goals
    Over/Under 1.5 Goals · P 81% · fair 1.24 · edge -3%
    71%1.20
  • 3
    SK Beveren Over 0.5 Goals
    Home Team Goals O/U 0.5 · P 84% · fair 1.20
    74%—
  • 4
    SK Beveren or Draw
    Double Chance · P 76% · fair 1.31 · edge -5%
    67%1.25
  • 5
    SK Beveren or Lommel United
    Double Chance · P 75% · fair 1.33 · edge -4%
    66%1.28
  • 6
    2nd Half Over 0.5 Goals
    2nd Half Goals O/U 0.5 · P 81% · fair 1.23
    71%—
Avoid

Correct Score — Even the most likely score (1-1) is only 12% likely.

Lommel United to win — Model gives it only 24%.

Why this prediction

Market-based estimate: built from current bookmaker odds (margin removed), adjusted for injuries and head-to-head where available. Both sides' scoring records point to a tight game of roughly 3.0 expected goals, supporting under 4.5 goals. Model probability 82%; confidence 72/100 after adjusting for data completeness (60%). Not available: League scoring averages (model prior used), Season home/away goal records, Recent form (last 5)….

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Predictions are statistical estimates, not guarantees. Bet responsibly.

Market odds

Odds via Bet365 · 11 h ago
Match Winner
SK Beveren to win1.80
Match Winner
Draw3.60
Match Winner
Lommel United to win3.90
Draw No Bet
SK Beveren (DNB)1.36
Draw No Bet
Lommel United (DNB)3.00
Over/Under 1.5 Goals
Over 1.5 Goals1.20
Over/Under 1.5 Goals
Under 1.5 Goals4.33
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Over 2.5 Goals1.67
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Under 2.5 Goals2.15
Over/Under 3.5 Goals
Over 3.5 Goals2.62
Over/Under 3.5 Goals
Under 3.5 Goals1.44
Over/Under 0.5 Goals
Over 0.5 Goals1.03
Over/Under 0.5 Goals
Under 0.5 Goals15.00
Over/Under 4.5 Goals
Over 4.5 Goals5.00
Over/Under 4.5 Goals
Under 4.5 Goals1.17
OU_7_5
Over 7.5 Goals41.00
OU_7_5
Under 7.5 Goals1.00
OU_5_5
Over 5.5 Goals10.00
OU_5_5
Under 5.5 Goals1.06
OU_6_5
Over 6.5 Goals21.00
OU_6_5
Under 6.5 Goals1.01
Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score: Yes1.62
Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score: No2.20
Double Chance
SK Beveren or Draw1.25
Double Chance
SK Beveren or Lommel United1.28
Double Chance
Lommel United or Draw1.95

Odds may have changed. Verify current odds with your bookmaker before placing a bet.