Outcome probabilities
Model estimate · expected goals 1.12 – 2.29
Recommended markets
Data completeness 60%- 173%1.12Al-Ahli Jeddah or DrawDouble Chance · P 83% · fair 1.20 · edge -7%
- 270%1.20Al-Fateh or Al-Ahli JeddahDouble Chance · P 80% · fair 1.26 · edge -4%
- 370%1.17Al-Ahli Jeddah (DNB)Draw No Bet · P 79% · fair 1.26 · edge -7%
- 465%1.33Under 4.5 GoalsOver/Under 4.5 Goals · P 74% · fair 1.35 · edge -1%
- 568%—1st Half Over 0.5 Goals1st Half Goals O/U 0.5 · P 78% · fair 1.29
- 658%1.40Over 2.5 GoalsOver/Under 2.5 Goals · P 66% · fair 1.51 · edge -7%
Correct Score — Even the most likely score (1-2) is only 10% likely.
Al-Fateh to win — Model gives it only 17%.
Why this prediction
Market-based estimate: built from current bookmaker odds (margin removed), adjusted for injuries and head-to-head where available. Outcome probabilities are Al-Fateh 17%, draw 20%, Al-Ahli Jeddah 63%, making "Al-Ahli Jeddah or Draw" the strongest result-based option. Model probability 83%; confidence 73/100 after adjusting for data completeness (60%). Not available: League scoring averages (model prior used), Season home/away goal records, Recent form (last 5)….
Predictions are statistical estimates, not guarantees. Bet responsibly.
Market odds
Odds via Bet365 · 11 h agoOdds may have changed. Verify current odds with your bookmaker before placing a bet.