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Portugal · Primeira LigaRegular Season - 8Fri 09 Oct, 20:15Estádio Municipal de Braga
SB
SC Braga
Home
VS
Kick-off 09/10/2026, 20:15
SC
Sporting CP
Away

Outcome probabilities

Model estimate · expected goals 1.14 – 1.55

27%
Home win
SC Braga
27%
Draw
Draw
46%
Away win
Sporting CP
Over 1.5 goals76%
Over 2.5 goals50%
Over 3.5 goals28%
Both teams to score55%

Recommended markets

Data completeness 60%
67%
Best selection · Over/Under 1.5 Goals
Over 1.5 Goals
Medium riskOdds 1.28
  • 1
    Over 1.5 Goals
    Over/Under 1.5 Goals · P 76% · fair 1.32 · edge -3%
    67%1.28
  • 2
    SC Braga or Sporting CP
    Double Chance · P 73% · fair 1.37 · edge -3%
    64%1.33
  • 3
    2nd Half Over 0.5 Goals
    2nd Half Goals O/U 0.5 · P 78% · fair 1.28
    69%—
  • 4
    Sporting CP Over 0.5 Goals
    Away Team Goals O/U 0.5 · P 79% · fair 1.27
    69%—
  • 5
    Sporting CP or Draw
    Double Chance · P 73% · fair 1.37 · edge -7%
    64%1.28
  • 6
    Under 3.5 Goals
    Over/Under 3.5 Goals · P 72% · fair 1.40 · edge -5%
    63%1.33
Avoid

Correct Score — Even the most likely score (1-1) is only 13% likely.

SC Braga to win — Model gives it only 27%.

Why this prediction

Market-based estimate: built from current bookmaker odds (margin removed), adjusted for injuries and head-to-head where available. The model projects about 2.7 total goals (SC Braga 1.14, Sporting CP 1.55), which supports over 1.5 goals. Model probability 76%; confidence 67/100 after adjusting for data completeness (60%). Not available: League scoring averages (model prior used), Season home/away goal records, Recent form (last 5)….

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Predictions are statistical estimates, not guarantees. Bet responsibly.

Market odds

Odds via Bet365 · 19 h ago
Match Winner
SC Braga to win3.50
Match Winner
Draw3.30
Match Winner
Sporting CP to win2.05
Draw No Bet
SC Braga (DNB)2.50
Draw No Bet
Sporting CP (DNB)1.50
Over/Under 1.5 Goals
Over 1.5 Goals1.28
Over/Under 1.5 Goals
Under 1.5 Goals3.50
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Over 2.5 Goals1.95
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Under 2.5 Goals1.85
Over/Under 3.5 Goals
Over 3.5 Goals3.25
Over/Under 3.5 Goals
Under 3.5 Goals1.33
Over/Under 0.5 Goals
Over 0.5 Goals1.05
Over/Under 0.5 Goals
Under 0.5 Goals11.00
Over/Under 4.5 Goals
Over 4.5 Goals6.50
Over/Under 4.5 Goals
Under 4.5 Goals1.11
OU_5_5
Over 5.5 Goals15.00
OU_5_5
Under 5.5 Goals1.03
OU_6_5
Over 6.5 Goals29.00
OU_6_5
Under 6.5 Goals1.01
Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score: Yes1.75
Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score: No2.00
Double Chance
SC Braga or Draw1.73
Double Chance
SC Braga or Sporting CP1.33
Double Chance
Sporting CP or Draw1.28

Odds may have changed. Verify current odds with your bookmaker before placing a bet.