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Predictions
Portugal · Primeira LigaRegular Season - 8Fri 09 Oct, 18:45Parque Joaquim Almeida Freitas
M
Moreirense
Home
VS
Kick-off 09/10/2026, 18:45
GV
GIL Vicente
Away

Outcome probabilities

Model estimate · expected goals 1.05 – 1.34

28%
Home win
Moreirense
29%
Draw
Draw
42%
Away win
GIL Vicente
Over 1.5 goals70%
Over 2.5 goals43%
Over 3.5 goals22%
Both teams to score49%

Recommended markets

Data completeness 60%
69%
Best selection · Over/Under 3.5 Goals
Under 3.5 Goals
Medium riskOdds 1.22
  • 1
    Under 3.5 Goals
    Over/Under 3.5 Goals · P 78% · fair 1.28 · edge -5%
    69%1.22
  • 2
    GIL Vicente or Draw
    Double Chance · P 72% · fair 1.40 · edge -5%
    63%1.33
  • 3
    Moreirense or GIL Vicente
    Double Chance · P 71% · fair 1.42 · edge -4%
    62%1.36
  • 4
    Over 1.5 Goals
    Over/Under 1.5 Goals · P 70% · fair 1.43 · edge -5%
    62%1.36
  • 5
    GIL Vicente Over 0.5 Goals
    Away Team Goals O/U 0.5 · P 74% · fair 1.36
    65%—
  • 6
    2nd Half Over 0.5 Goals
    2nd Half Goals O/U 0.5 · P 74% · fair 1.36
    65%—
Avoid

Correct Score — Even the most likely score (1-1) is only 14% likely.

Moreirense to win — Model gives it only 28%.

Why this prediction

Market-based estimate: built from current bookmaker odds (margin removed), adjusted for injuries and head-to-head where available. Both sides' scoring records point to a tight game of roughly 2.4 expected goals, supporting under 3.5 goals. Model probability 78%; confidence 69/100 after adjusting for data completeness (60%). Not available: League scoring averages (model prior used), Season home/away goal records, Recent form (last 5)….

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Predictions are statistical estimates, not guarantees. Bet responsibly.

Market odds

Odds via Bet365 · 11 h ago
Double Chance
GIL Vicente or Draw1.33
Match Winner
Moreirense to win3.30
Match Winner
Draw3.20
Match Winner
GIL Vicente to win2.25
Draw No Bet
Moreirense (DNB)2.25
Draw No Bet
GIL Vicente (DNB)1.57
Over/Under 1.5 Goals
Over 1.5 Goals1.36
Over/Under 1.5 Goals
Under 1.5 Goals3.00
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Over 2.5 Goals2.25
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Under 2.5 Goals1.62
Over/Under 3.5 Goals
Over 3.5 Goals4.00
Over/Under 3.5 Goals
Under 3.5 Goals1.22
Over/Under 0.5 Goals
Over 0.5 Goals1.08
Over/Under 0.5 Goals
Under 0.5 Goals8.00
Over/Under 4.5 Goals
Over 4.5 Goals9.00
Over/Under 4.5 Goals
Under 4.5 Goals1.07
OU_5_5
Over 5.5 Goals19.00
OU_5_5
Under 5.5 Goals1.02
OU_6_5
Over 6.5 Goals41.00
OU_6_5
Under 6.5 Goals1.00
Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score: Yes1.95
Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score: No1.80
Double Chance
Moreirense or Draw1.62
Double Chance
Moreirense or GIL Vicente1.36

Odds may have changed. Verify current odds with your bookmaker before placing a bet.