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Predictions
Spain · La LigaRegular Season - 8Fri 09 Oct, 20:00La Rosaleda
M
Malaga
Home
VS
Kick-off 09/10/2026, 20:00
E
Espanyol
Away

Outcome probabilities

Model estimate · expected goals 1.1 – 1.12

34%
Home win
Malaga
31%
Draw
Draw
35%
Away win
Espanyol
Over 1.5 goals66%
Over 2.5 goals38%
Over 3.5 goals18%
Both teams to score46%

Recommended markets

Data completeness 60%
72%
Best selection · Over/Under 3.5 Goals
Under 3.5 Goals
Low–Medium riskOdds 1.28
  • 1
    Under 3.5 Goals
    Over/Under 3.5 Goals · P 82% · fair 1.22 · edge +4%
    72%1.28
  • 2
    Espanyol +1
    Asian Handicap Home -1 · P 82% · fair 1.21
    73%—
  • 3
    Under 2.5 Goals
    Over/Under 2.5 Goals · P 62% · fair 1.62 · edge +7%
    55%1.73
  • 4
    Malaga or Espanyol
    Double Chance · P 69% · fair 1.45 · edge -6%
    61%1.36
  • 5
    1st Half Under 1.5 Goals
    1st Half Goals O/U 1.5 · P 75% · fair 1.34
    66%—
  • 6
    Espanyol or Draw
    Double Chance · P 66% · fair 1.51 · edge -8%
    59%1.40
Avoid

Correct Score — Even the most likely score (1-1) is only 14% likely.

Draw — Model gives it only 31%.

Why this prediction

Market-based estimate: built from current bookmaker odds (margin removed), adjusted for injuries and head-to-head where available. Both sides' scoring records point to a tight game of roughly 2.2 expected goals, supporting under 3.5 goals. Model probability 82%; confidence 72/100 after adjusting for data completeness (60%). Not available: League scoring averages (model prior used), Season home/away goal records, Recent form (last 5)….

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Predictions are statistical estimates, not guarantees. Bet responsibly.

Market odds

Odds via Bet365 · 10 h ago
Double Chance
Espanyol or Draw1.40
Match Winner
Malaga to win2.80
Match Winner
Draw3.10
Match Winner
Espanyol to win2.70
Draw No Bet
Malaga (DNB)1.83
Draw No Bet
Espanyol (DNB)1.83
Over/Under 1.5 Goals
Over 1.5 Goals1.33
Over/Under 1.5 Goals
Under 1.5 Goals3.40
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Over 2.5 Goals2.10
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Under 2.5 Goals1.73
Over/Under 3.5 Goals
Over 3.5 Goals3.75
Over/Under 3.5 Goals
Under 3.5 Goals1.28
Over/Under 0.5 Goals
Over 0.5 Goals1.07
Over/Under 0.5 Goals
Under 0.5 Goals9.00
Over/Under 4.5 Goals
Over 4.5 Goals7.00
Over/Under 4.5 Goals
Under 4.5 Goals1.10
OU_5_5
Over 5.5 Goals15.00
OU_5_5
Under 5.5 Goals1.03
OU_6_5
Over 6.5 Goals29.00
OU_6_5
Under 6.5 Goals1.01
Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score: Yes1.80
Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score: No1.95
Double Chance
Malaga or Draw1.44
Double Chance
Malaga or Espanyol1.36

Odds may have changed. Verify current odds with your bookmaker before placing a bet.