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Predictions
Germany · BundesligaRegular Season - 5Fri 09 Oct, 19:30Signal Iduna Park
BD
Borussia Dortmund
Home
VS
Kick-off 09/10/2026, 19:30
WB
Werder Bremen
Away

Outcome probabilities

Model estimate · expected goals 2.18 – 0.83

68%
Home win
Borussia Dortmund
20%
Draw
Draw
12%
Away win
Werder Bremen
Over 1.5 goals81%
Over 2.5 goals58%
Over 3.5 goals35%
Both teams to score51%

Recommended markets

Data completeness 60%
72%
Best selection · Over/Under 4.5 Goals
Under 4.5 Goals
Low–Medium riskOdds 1.36
  • 1
    Under 4.5 Goals
    Over/Under 4.5 Goals · P 81% · fair 1.23 · edge +11%
    72%1.36
  • 2
    Borussia Dortmund (DNB)
    Draw No Bet · P 85% · fair 1.18 · edge -7%
    75%1.10
  • 3
    Over 1.5 Goals
    Over/Under 1.5 Goals · P 81% · fair 1.24 · edge -10%
    72%1.11
  • 4
    Borussia Dortmund or Werder Bremen
    Double Chance · P 80% · fair 1.25 · edge -9%
    71%1.14
  • 5
    2nd Half Over 0.5 Goals
    2nd Half Goals O/U 0.5 · P 81% · fair 1.23
    72%—
  • 6
    Under 3.5 Goals
    Over/Under 3.5 Goals · P 65% · fair 1.55 · edge +16%
    57%1.80
Avoid

Correct Score — Even the most likely score (2-0) is only 12% likely.

Werder Bremen to win — Model gives it only 12%.

Why this prediction

Market-based estimate: built from current bookmaker odds (margin removed), adjusted for injuries and head-to-head where available. Both sides' scoring records point to a tight game of roughly 3.0 expected goals, supporting under 4.5 goals. Model probability 81%; confidence 72/100 after adjusting for data completeness (60%). Not available: League scoring averages (model prior used), Season home/away goal records, Recent form (last 5)….

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Predictions are statistical estimates, not guarantees. Bet responsibly.

Market odds

Odds via Bet365 · 10 h ago
Double Chance
Werder Bremen or Draw3.25
Match Winner
Borussia Dortmund to win1.33
Match Winner
Draw5.50
Match Winner
Werder Bremen to win8.00
Draw No Bet
Borussia Dortmund (DNB)1.10
Draw No Bet
Werder Bremen (DNB)7.00
Over/Under 1.5 Goals
Over 1.5 Goals1.11
Over/Under 1.5 Goals
Under 1.5 Goals6.50
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Over 2.5 Goals1.40
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Under 2.5 Goals3.00
Over/Under 3.5 Goals
Over 3.5 Goals2.00
Over/Under 3.5 Goals
Under 3.5 Goals1.80
Over/Under 0.5 Goals
Over 0.5 Goals1.01
Over/Under 0.5 Goals
Under 0.5 Goals21.00
OU_8_5
Over 8.5 Goals41.00
OU_8_5
Under 8.5 Goals1.00
Over/Under 4.5 Goals
Over 4.5 Goals3.20
Over/Under 4.5 Goals
Under 4.5 Goals1.36
OU_7_5
Over 7.5 Goals21.00
OU_7_5
Under 7.5 Goals1.01
OU_5_5
Over 5.5 Goals5.50
OU_5_5
Under 5.5 Goals1.14
OU_6_5
Over 6.5 Goals11.00
OU_6_5
Under 6.5 Goals1.05
Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score: Yes1.62
Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score: No2.20
Double Chance
Borussia Dortmund or Draw1.08
Double Chance
Borussia Dortmund or Werder Bremen1.14

Odds may have changed. Verify current odds with your bookmaker before placing a bet.