Outcome probabilities
Model estimate · expected goals 1.07 – 2.1
Recommended markets
Data completeness 60%- 173%1.17Over 1.5 GoalsOver/Under 1.5 Goals · P 83% · fair 1.20 · edge -3%
- 272%1.14Al-Qadisiyah FC or DrawDouble Chance · P 82% · fair 1.22 · edge -6%
- 369%1.22Under 4.5 GoalsOver/Under 4.5 Goals · P 78% · fair 1.27 · edge -4%
- 469%1.22Al Kholood or Al-Qadisiyah FCDouble Chance · P 78% · fair 1.28 · edge -5%
- 573%—2nd Half Over 0.5 Goals2nd Half Goals O/U 0.5 · P 83% · fair 1.20
- 668%1.20Al-Qadisiyah FC (DNB)Draw No Bet · P 77% · fair 1.29 · edge -7%
Correct Score — Even the most likely score (1-1) is only 10% likely.
Al Kholood to win — Model gives it only 18%.
Why this prediction
Market-based estimate: built from current bookmaker odds (margin removed), adjusted for injuries and head-to-head where available. The model projects about 3.2 total goals (Al Kholood 1.07, Al-Qadisiyah FC 2.10), which supports over 1.5 goals. Model probability 83%; confidence 73/100 after adjusting for data completeness (60%). Not available: League scoring averages (model prior used), Season home/away goal records, Recent form (last 5)….
Predictions are statistical estimates, not guarantees. Bet responsibly.
Market odds
Odds via Bet365 · 10 h agoOdds may have changed. Verify current odds with your bookmaker before placing a bet.