Outcome probabilities
Model estimate · expected goals 2.3 – 1.07
Recommended markets
Data completeness 50%- 172%1.12Al-Nassr or DrawDouble Chance · P 84% · fair 1.19 · edge -5%
- 269%1.17Al-Nassr (DNB)Draw No Bet · P 80% · fair 1.24 · edge -6%
- 368%1.17Al-Nassr or Al DiriyahDouble Chance · P 80% · fair 1.25 · edge -7%
- 472%—2nd Half Over 0.5 Goals2nd Half Goals O/U 0.5 · P 85% · fair 1.18
- 564%1.30Under 4.5 GoalsOver/Under 4.5 Goals · P 75% · fair 1.33 · edge -3%
- 666%—1st Half Over 0.5 Goals1st Half Goals O/U 0.5 · P 77% · fair 1.29
Correct Score — Even the most likely score (2-1) is only 10% likely.
Al Diriyah to win — Model gives it only 16%.
Why this prediction
Market-based estimate: built from current bookmaker odds (margin removed), adjusted for injuries and head-to-head where available. Outcome probabilities are Al-Nassr 64%, draw 20%, Al Diriyah 16%, making "Al-Nassr or Draw" the strongest result-based option. Model probability 84%; confidence 72/100 after adjusting for data completeness (50%). Not available: League scoring averages (model prior used), Season home/away goal records, Recent form (last 5)….
Predictions are statistical estimates, not guarantees. Bet responsibly.
Market odds
Odds via Bet365 · 19 h agoOdds may have changed. Verify current odds with your bookmaker before placing a bet.