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Predictions
Brazil · Serie ARegular Season - 29Fri 09 Oct, 00:00Arena da Baixada
AP
Atletico Paranaense
Home
VS
Kick-off 09/10/2026, 00:00
A
Atletico-MG
Away

Outcome probabilities

Model estimate · expected goals 1.3 – 0.96

43%
Home win
Atletico Paranaense
30%
Draw
Draw
26%
Away win
Atletico-MG
Over 1.5 goals67%
Over 2.5 goals39%
Over 3.5 goals19%
Both teams to score46%

Recommended markets

Data completeness 60%
71%
Best selection · Over/Under 3.5 Goals
Under 3.5 Goals
Low–Medium riskOdds 1.30
  • 1
    Under 3.5 Goals
    Over/Under 3.5 Goals · P 81% · fair 1.24 · edge +5%
    71%1.30
  • 2
    Atletico Paranaense or Draw
    Double Chance · P 74% · fair 1.36 · edge -6%
    65%1.28
  • 3
    Under 2.5 Goals
    Over/Under 2.5 Goals · P 61% · fair 1.64 · edge +10%
    54%1.80
  • 4
    Atletico-MG Under 1.5 Goals
    Away Team Goals O/U 1.5 · P 75% · fair 1.33
    66%—
  • 5
    Atletico Paranaense or Atletico-MG
    Double Chance · P 70% · fair 1.43 · edge -9%
    61%1.30
  • 6
    Atletico-MG +1
    Asian Handicap Home -1 · P 74% · fair 1.36
    65%—
Avoid

Correct Score — Even the most likely score (1-1) is only 14% likely.

Atletico-MG to win — Model gives it only 26%.

Why this prediction

Market-based estimate: built from current bookmaker odds (margin removed), adjusted for injuries and head-to-head where available. Both sides' scoring records point to a tight game of roughly 2.3 expected goals, supporting under 3.5 goals. Model probability 81%; confidence 71/100 after adjusting for data completeness (60%). Not available: League scoring averages (model prior used), Season home/away goal records, Recent form (last 5)….

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Predictions are statistical estimates, not guarantees. Bet responsibly.

Market odds

Odds via Bet365 · 12 h ago
Match Winner
Atletico Paranaense to win2.10
Match Winner
Draw3.40
Match Winner
Atletico-MG to win3.50
Draw No Bet
Atletico Paranaense (DNB)1.44
Draw No Bet
Atletico-MG (DNB)2.62
Over/Under 1.5 Goals
Over 1.5 Goals1.30
Over/Under 1.5 Goals
Under 1.5 Goals3.50
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Over 2.5 Goals2.00
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Under 2.5 Goals1.80
Over/Under 3.5 Goals
Over 3.5 Goals3.50
Over/Under 3.5 Goals
Under 3.5 Goals1.30
Over/Under 0.5 Goals
Over 0.5 Goals1.06
Over/Under 0.5 Goals
Under 0.5 Goals9.50
Over/Under 4.5 Goals
Over 4.5 Goals6.50
Over/Under 4.5 Goals
Under 4.5 Goals1.11
OU_5_5
Over 5.5 Goals15.00
OU_5_5
Under 5.5 Goals1.03
OU_6_5
Over 6.5 Goals29.00
OU_6_5
Under 6.5 Goals1.01
Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score: Yes1.80
Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score: No1.95
Double Chance
Atletico Paranaense or Draw1.28
Double Chance
Atletico Paranaense or Atletico-MG1.30
Double Chance
Atletico-MG or Draw1.73

Odds may have changed. Verify current odds with your bookmaker before placing a bet.