Outcome probabilities
Model estimate · expected goals 0.98 – 1.67
Recommended markets
Data completeness 60%- 169%1.18Flamengo or DrawDouble Chance · P 79% · fair 1.27 · edge -7%
- 264%1.44Under 3.5 GoalsOver/Under 3.5 Goals · P 73% · fair 1.38 · edge +4%
- 371%—Flamengo Over 0.5 GoalsAway Team Goals O/U 0.5 · P 81% · fair 1.23
- 466%1.22Over 1.5 GoalsOver/Under 1.5 Goals · P 75% · fair 1.33 · edge -8%
- 565%1.28Santos or FlamengoDouble Chance · P 74% · fair 1.35 · edge -6%
- 663%1.30Flamengo (DNB)Draw No Bet · P 71% · fair 1.41 · edge -7%
Correct Score — Even the most likely score (1-1) is only 13% likely.
Santos to win — Model gives it only 21%.
Why this prediction
Market-based estimate: built from current bookmaker odds (margin removed), adjusted for injuries and head-to-head where available. Outcome probabilities are Santos 21%, draw 26%, Flamengo 53%, making "Flamengo or Draw" the strongest result-based option. Model probability 79%; confidence 69/100 after adjusting for data completeness (60%). Not available: League scoring averages (model prior used), Season home/away goal records, Recent form (last 5)….
Predictions are statistical estimates, not guarantees. Bet responsibly.
Market odds
Odds via Bet365 · 12 h agoOdds may have changed. Verify current odds with your bookmaker before placing a bet.