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Predictions
France · Ligue 1Regular Season - 6Fri 09 Oct, 19:45Stade Bollaert-Delelis
L
Lens
Home
VS
Kick-off 09/10/2026, 19:45
L
Lyon
Away

Outcome probabilities

Model estimate · expected goals 1.41 – 1.46

35%
Home win
Lens
27%
Draw
Draw
38%
Away win
Lyon
Over 1.5 goals79%
Over 2.5 goals55%
Over 3.5 goals32%
Both teams to score59%

Recommended markets

Data completeness 60%
74%
Best selection · Over/Under 4.5 Goals
Under 4.5 Goals
Low–Medium riskOdds 1.25
  • 1
    Under 4.5 Goals
    Over/Under 4.5 Goals · P 84% · fair 1.19 · edge +5%
    74%1.25
  • 2
    Under 3.5 Goals
    Over/Under 3.5 Goals · P 68% · fair 1.48 · edge +13%
    60%1.67
  • 3
    Over 1.5 Goals
    Over/Under 1.5 Goals · P 79% · fair 1.27 · edge -10%
    70%1.14
  • 4
    Lyon +1
    Asian Handicap Home -1 · P 79% · fair 1.26
    71%—
  • 5
    2nd Half Over 0.5 Goals
    2nd Half Goals O/U 0.5 · P 80% · fair 1.25
    71%—
  • 6
    Lens or Lyon
    Double Chance · P 73% · fair 1.37 · edge -6%
    65%1.28
Avoid

Correct Score — Even the most likely score (1-1) is only 13% likely.

Draw — Model gives it only 27%.

Why this prediction

Market-based estimate: built from current bookmaker odds (margin removed), adjusted for injuries and head-to-head where available. Both sides' scoring records point to a tight game of roughly 2.9 expected goals, supporting under 4.5 goals. Model probability 84%; confidence 74/100 after adjusting for data completeness (60%). Not available: League scoring averages (model prior used), Season home/away goal records, Recent form (last 5)….

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Predictions are statistical estimates, not guarantees. Bet responsibly.

Market odds

Odds via Bet365 · 11 h ago
Double Chance
Lyon or Draw1.50
Match Winner
Lens to win2.50
Match Winner
Draw3.60
Match Winner
Lyon to win2.70
Draw No Bet
Lens (DNB)1.80
Draw No Bet
Lyon (DNB)1.91
Over/Under 1.5 Goals
Over 1.5 Goals1.14
Over/Under 1.5 Goals
Under 1.5 Goals5.50
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Over 2.5 Goals1.53
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Under 2.5 Goals2.50
Over/Under 3.5 Goals
Over 3.5 Goals2.20
Over/Under 3.5 Goals
Under 3.5 Goals1.67
Over/Under 0.5 Goals
Over 0.5 Goals1.03
Over/Under 0.5 Goals
Under 0.5 Goals15.00
OU_8_5
Over 8.5 Goals51.00
OU_8_5
Under 8.5 Goals1.00
Over/Under 4.5 Goals
Over 4.5 Goals4.00
Over/Under 4.5 Goals
Under 4.5 Goals1.25
OU_7_5
Over 7.5 Goals26.00
OU_7_5
Under 7.5 Goals1.01
OU_5_5
Over 5.5 Goals7.00
OU_5_5
Under 5.5 Goals1.10
OU_6_5
Over 6.5 Goals15.00
OU_6_5
Under 6.5 Goals1.03
Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score: Yes1.44
Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score: No2.62
Double Chance
Lens or Draw1.44
Double Chance
Lens or Lyon1.28

Odds may have changed. Verify current odds with your bookmaker before placing a bet.